Skip to main content

Brexit Will Still Be A Success

The result of the UK's election is disappointing but created no mandate for watering down our exit from the European Union, it was secured both by the referendum in June of last year and the triggering of Article 50 in march. Making it not just the will of the Prime Minister but the will of the people and of the UK's democratically elected parliament.

Over 83 per cent of the vote went to 'Hard Brexit' parties, which combined account for over 90 per cent of the seats at Westminster. Brexit is not in doubt; its more sure than ever before and this election has therefore secured an unimpeachable mandate. All parties offering a second referendum, the Green Party, the Liberal Democrats and the SNP lost votes (and in the case of the SNP, lost seats as well).

Theresa May won the election, she'll go on to form a minority government with the aid of the DUP and with my disappointment she didn't receive a resounding endorsement of her Lancaster House Speech. What I think could result, is a cross-party commission (or talks) which will form an agreed position but that will require some compromise. Both major parties agree that Brexit must mean leaving the single market and both included this in their respective manifestos:

What I expect is for us to end up somewhere like Switzerland, outside the Customs Union, outside the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP), outside the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), outside the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice but rejoining the European Free Trade Agreement (EFTA) and replicating parts of single market membership with moderate financial contributions and bilateral treaties, instead of actual membership. Most crucially is that Switzerland is able to de-regulate its own economy, this is surely a compromise agreement that almost anyone can accept.

Britain itself, was once a member of EFTA before joining the EU and helped to form the organization in the 1960s. Its been most notably favored as an alternative to EU membership by Margaret Thatcher, Daniel Hannan and even by Nicola Sturgeon. Its my belief that the UK should also look toward membership of NAFTA.

As I indicated before the result is disappointing but the UK's negotiating position in Europe is still strong. The moment we leave the European Union we become its largest export market with a huge deficit in trade, our membership of FVEYs means that we cooperate and share information with Europole more than any other country (as May reminded Donald Tusk in her Article 50 letter), we maintain billions worth of assets in the European investment bank, and in the event of reverting to World Trade Organisation tariffs we retain the ability to drastically change the UK's economic model with swingeing cuts in regulation and corporation tax.

In addition, while this may seem an unpopular thing to say in the moments after the result, I hope the Prime Minister stays on to serve her full term. I still see no reason why she should leave. She secured the largest share of the vote since 1983 and is now the third most voted for Prime Minister in our history. She showed remarkable leadership in the Trident debate, her Lancaster speech and in her over sight of the Lord's debate on Article 50. I hope we see more of that during the negotiation period but her future as Prime Minister, I worry, survives only on borrowed time. 


Popular posts from this blog

William Lane Craig and the Hartle-Hawking No Boundary Proposal

Classical standard hot Big Bang cosmology represents the universe as beginning from a singular dense point, with no prior description or explanation of classical spacetime. Quantum cosmology is different in that it replaces the initial singularity with a description in accord with some law the "quantum mechanical wave function of the universe", different approaches to quantum cosmology differ in their appeal either to describe the origin of the material content of the universe e.g., Tyron 1973, Linde 1983a, Krauss 2012 or the origin of spacetime itself e.g., Vilenkin 1982, Linde 1983b, Hartle-Hawking 1983, Vilenkin 1984.

These last few proposals by Vilenkin, Hartle-Hawking and others are solutions to the Wheeler-DeWitt equation and exist in a category of proposals called "quantum gravity cosmologies" which make cosmic applications of an approach to quantum gravity called "closed dynamic triangulation" or CDT (also known as Euclidean quantum gravity). I&#…

How Should Thatcherites Remember the '80s?

Every now and again, when I talk to people about the '80s I'm told that it was a time of unhinged selfishness, that somehow or other we learned the price of everything but the value of nothing. I can just remember that infamous line from Billy Elliot; 'Merry Christmas Maggie Thatcher. We all celebrate today because its one day closer to your death'. If it reflected the general mood of the time, one might wonder how it is she won, not one but three elections.

In an era when a woman couldn't be Prime Minister and a working class radical would never lead the Conservative party, Thatcher was both and her launch into power was almost accidental owing in part to Manchester liberals and the Winter of Discontent. Yet I'm convinced her election victory in '79 was the only one that ever truly mattered. Simply consider the calamity of what preceded it, the 1970s was a decade of double-digit inflation, power cuts, mass strikes, price and income controls, and the three…

Creation Of Universes from Nothing

The above paper "Creation of Universes from Nothing" was published in 1982, which was subsequently followed up in 1984 by a paper titled "Quantum Creation of Universes". I decided it would be a good idea to talk about these proposals, since last time I talked about the Hartle-Hawking model which was, as it turns out, inspired by the above work. 
Alexander Vilenkin also explains in a non-technical way the essential idea in his book; Many World's in One – one of the best books I've ever read – it mostly covers cosmic inflationary theory but the 17th chapter covers how inflation may have begun. In fact Vilenkin is one of the main preponderant who helped develop inflation along with Steinhardt, Guth, Hawking, Starobinsky, Linde and others. 
Although I won't talk about it here, Vilenkin also discovered a way of doing cosmology by using something called "topological defects" and he has been known for work he's done on cosmic strings, too.
In ex…