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Showing posts from February, 2018

No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal

With the consent of both houses of parliament, Theresa May moved to trigger Article 50 back in March, making it the expressed will of not just one Prime Minister, but of the people and of their elected representatives. If the reality hasn't set in by now, it should have: we are leaving the European Union.

The only question that remains is whether we leave on favorable terms with an agreement in place that covers, not least of all trade or in keeping with the Prime Minister's oft-repeated phrase "no deal is better than a bad deal", we leave without a trade deal, and make the necessary arrangements to keep our economy competitive.

This latter option which involves tariffs, is how most countries conduct their trade with the European Union, we would in affect, be left with a "US-style" or "Chinese-style" relationship to the EU. One conducted on WTO terms, instead of a more favorable bilateral basis.

The possibility of leaving without a deal is hardly…

Brexit Transition Worries

In recent headlines, a lot of the debate over Brexit has now shifted to a debate over the transition period Theresa May proposed in her Florence speech. Overall, the speech she made was well-judged and statesmen like, and for whatever it's worth I think Theresa May is a competent politician of sound mind. I hope she stays on as Prime Minister.

There's nothing wrong in principle with an implementation period after the time limit of Article 50 has expired. As one MEP put it "Brexit is a process not an event" it's going to involve the gradual repatriation of powers back to the United Kingdom, rather running off a cliff edge and imposing multiple changes on businesses all at once, but there is a serious worry about the terms of implementation.

If under the transition phase we remain a member of the single market, the custom's union, and under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, come March 2019, we will in fact have not left the European union. We&…